[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 169/123

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1231 0012
      Townsville           2   1121 0003
      Learmonth            2   2120 0002
      Canberra             2   1220 0013
      Hobart               2   1220 0012
      Casey(Ant)          15   --3- ----
      Davis(Ant)           9   2-42 11-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   3213 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
27 Mar   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar   160    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
29 Mar   170    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
30 Mar   170    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 505 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   181000 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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