[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 166/120

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            160/114

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   3333 3223
      Learmonth            9   3323 2213
      Canberra             9   2223 3223
      Hobart               8   2223 3212
      Casey(Ant)          27   4--- ----
      Davis(Ant)          17   3344 3234
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   2212 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active 
                periods possible. 
28 Mar     5    Mostly quiet. 
29 Mar     5    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: An intense CME was observed around 1342UT/26 March on 
the west limb, but it is not expected to be geo-effective as 
it seems to have come from behind the disk. Bz remained southward 
for quite a long time today and can raise the geomagnetic activity 
to active level occassionally. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Due to the expected slight occassional increase in the 
geomagnetic activity on 27 March, minor degradation in MUFs can 
be expected on 27 March at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
26 Mar   149
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
5 to 30% above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March: 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar   150    10 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
28 Mar   155    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
29 Mar   155    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    45000 K  Bz:  11 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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