[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 188/141

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143
COMMENT: Although some of the recent CME activity appears to 
have originated from centrally located regions, the CMEs do not 
appear to be Earthward directed from LASCO imagery. 


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   4322 2113
      Darwin               9   4222 2124
      Learmonth            8   4222 2113
      Canberra             6   3222 2013
      Hobart               6   3221 2113
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 11--
      Davis(Ant)          14   4433 2213
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAR : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17   1343 3335     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
COMMENT: Active periods are possible for 4-5 March due to an
anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
01 Mar   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed up to 15% during the local day,
      otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 110

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
03 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
04 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    9.9 p/cc  Temp:    52300 K  Bz:  -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060