[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/--    0012UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 204/155

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            200/152



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   2534 3245
      Darwin              17   2533 2335
      Learmonth           20   2433 3354
      Canberra            17   2533 3234
      Hobart              14   2433 3234
      Casey(Ant)          26   3644 3234
      Davis(Ant)          28   35-5 4246
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 FEB : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2011 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    16    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods. 
02 Mar    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A WEAK SHOCK WAS OBSERVED IN THE SOLAR WIND PARAMETERS 
AT APPROXIMATELY 04UT. THE CAUSE OF THIS SHOCK IS POSSIBLY A 
LONG DURATION C-CLASS FLARE OBSERVED AT APPROXIMATELY 1355UT 
ON 26 FEB, WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. ACTIVE TO MINOR 
STORM PERIODS WERE OBSERVED FOR 28 FEB, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE 
PERIODS EXPECTED FOR 1 MARCH. 
A weak (26nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 0451UT on 28 Feb, and a weak (14nT) impulse was observed at 
0904UT on 28 Feb. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 1 March 
following mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels observed 
for 28 February. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
28 Feb   157

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar   135    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Mar   150    near predicted monthly values 
03 Mar   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions are possible for 1 March 
following mildly elevated geomagnetic activity levels observed 
for 28 February. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    46000 K  Bz:   3 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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