[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 143/97

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             140/94             140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 29June. Three C-class 
flares (C2.6/0034UT, C1.2/0640UT and C2/0933UT) were 
observed on 29 June. The solar wind speed mostly remained 
at moderate level of approximately 350km/s for most of 
the day, but it showed a rapid rise to approximately 380km/s 
around 2000UT. The solar wind speed is currently showing 
fluctuations indicating a decreasing trend as well. Bz 
remained northwards for most of the day. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 0122
      Darwin               4   1211 0223
      Townsville           2   1101 0122
      Learmonth            2   0111 0121
      Canberra             2   0101 0122
      Hobart               1   0001 0111
      Casey(Ant)           2   1211 010-
      Davis(Ant)           8   1332 12--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JUN : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) 
variations of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices 
are the daily sum of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              7   2112 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun    10    Mostly unsettled. 
01 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled. 
02 Jul     7    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geo-magnetic effect of the partial halo CME 
observed on 27June may raise the geo-magnetic activity to 
unsettled levels on 30June. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: The expected geo-magnetic effect of the partial 
halo CME observed on 27June may lead to mild degradations 
in HF conditions on 30June. Periods of small depressions 
may be observed at mid and high latitude locations during 
this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
29 Jun   100

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day with periods
      of depressions upto 20%.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun   105    Near predicted monthly values with periods of 
                depressions upto 5%. 
01 Jul   105    Near predicted monthly values with periods of 
                depressions upto 5%. 
02 Jul   108    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The expected geo-magnetic effect of the partial 
halo CME observed on 27June may lead to small degradations 
in the HF conditions in southern Australian regions on 
30 June. MUFs may show small depressions during this period. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    34100 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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