[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 29 09:53:27 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 137/91
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: A partial halo CME was observed from the south-western
limb at 2318UT/27June. It could not be co-related to any event.
However, the LASCO imagery indicates that this CME may have come
from region 0008. It is difficult to say if this CME is going
to be geo-effective or not. The solar wind speed decreased from
360km/s to 310 km/s (approx.) between 0000UT and 1800UT on 28June.
The wind speed showed a rapid rise around 1800UT and went back
to 360km/s (approx.). It is slowing down again. Bz remained
predominantly northward on 28 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 0010 0002
Darwin 3 2110 1113
Townsville 0 0000 0011
Learmonth 0 0010 0000
Canberra 0 0000 0002
Hobart 0 0000 0002
Casey(Ant) 0 0110 000-
Davis(Ant) 1 0011 1011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JUN :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 7 2112 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 6 Mostly quiet.
30 Jun 8 Quiet to unsettled
01 Jul 10 Mostly unsettled.
COMMENT: A partial halo CME was observed from the south-western
limb at 2318UT/27June. It could not be co-related to any other
event, but LASCO imagery idicates a possible source of this CME
as region 0008. It is difficult to say at this stage if this
CME is going to be geo-effective or not, but it does indicate
a possibility for the geo-magnetic activity to rise to unsettled
level in the second half of 30June and on 1July in case the CME
proves to be geo-effective. Bz remained predominantly northwards
on UTday 29June. Geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet level on 28June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Since the geo-magnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet level on 29 June, the HF conditions are expected
to remain normal during this period. However, a possible
geo-magnetic effect of a partial halo CME observed on 27June,
may cause mild degradations in HF conditions at high latitudes
in the second half of 30 June and on 1 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
28 Jun 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day
with some periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values to enhanced upto
15%.
30 Jun 107 near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 105 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Since the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
at quiet levels for most of the time on 29 June 2002, the HF
conditions are expected to remain normal during this period.
However, a possible geo-magnetic effect of a partial halo CME
observed on 27June, may lead to minor degradations in HF
conditions in southern Australian regions in the second half
of 30June (UTday) and on 1July 2002 (UTday).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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