[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 June 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun: 170/124

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            165/119            165/119
COMMENT: Solar region 9973, now near centre of solar disk, and 
the largest unspot group currently on disk, appears to be decreasing 
in magnetic complexity. Solar region 9979, in the south-east 
quadrant, is increasing in magnetic complexity. Isolated M class 
activity expected. ACE EPAM shock precursor data channel shows 
no sign yet of increasing flux, (expected after recent Type II 
(assumed CME) events. Solar wind speed moderately elevated at 
420km/sec over UT day. Bz mostly neutral. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9948 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 5 Jun. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2332 2132
      Darwin               8   2331 1132
      Townsville           9   233- 2123
      Learmonth            8   2232 1132
      Canberra             6   2231 2022
      Hobart               6   2232 1022
      Casey(Ant)          11   3332 2132
      Davis(Ant)          16   4343 22-4
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 JUN : 
      Darwin              18   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   4323 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
05 Jun    17    Unsettled to active 
06 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 2 June and 
is current for interval 3-4 June. No sign yet of increased geomagnetic 
activity. Forecast activity levels have been reduced. However, 
mildly increased geomagnetic activity remains expected over next 
two days due to sequence of recent Type II radio sweeps, and 
coronal hole wind stream effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Spread F observed at high latitudes yesterday. Moderately 
degraded conditions expected at high latitudes next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
03 Jun   126

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
05 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
06 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 2 June 
and is current for interval 3-4 June. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:   155000 K  Bz:   1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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