[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 June 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 3 09:20:51 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z JUNE 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    2044UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 175/129

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119
COMMENT: Solar region 9973 near the centre of the solar disk 
produced a C5 type II event starting at 2346 on 01 Jun. Shopck 
speed 600km/sec. The M1 event was from solar region 9979 in far 
south-east quadrant of the solar disk. The flare was reported 
with a type II sweep, speed 1079km/sec. Solar region 9977 in 
far south-west of solar disk also contributed a slow type II 
(323km/sec) with a C8 flare at 1015UT. It also appears that the 
Earth has entered a moderate speed coronal hole wind stream (450km/sec). 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic filed 
fluctuated southward 11-17UT on 02 Jun. It nows seems that we 
could have a sequence of mild shock events expected to arrive 
over interval 03-05 Jun (Todays type II events are expected to 
arrive first half 05 Jun). At present ACE EPAM precursor data 
channel shows no increasing flux trend. No LASCO to confirm
sweep data.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3322 2333
      Darwin              11   3321 2333
      Townsville          12   3322 3333
      Learmonth            9   3212 2332
      Canberra            11   3311 3333
      Hobart              10   2311 3333
      Casey(Ant)          12   4422 2223
      Davis(Ant)          11   -432 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 JUN : 
      Darwin              12   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1022 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun    18    Unsettled to active 
04 Jun    20    Active to minor storm 
05 Jun    17    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 20 was issued on 2 June and 
is current for interval 3-4 June. A trend of increasing geomagnetic 
activity now expected over next two to three days, due to sequence 
of recent Type II radio sweeps, and coronal hole wind stream 
effects. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Spread F observed at high latitudes yesterday. Moderately 
degraded conditions expected at high latitudes next two to three 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
02 Jun   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
04 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
05 Jun   130    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 2 June 
and is current for interval 3-4 June. Mild degradation in HF 
conditions local night hours, next two days, southern Aus/NZ 
region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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