[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 133/87

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jul             14 Jul             15 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             140/94
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. 
The region 30 remains possible to produce isolated flare. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 12 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   2323 3433
      Darwin              12   2323 3333
      Townsville          12   2313 3333
      Learmonth           14   2323 3433
      Canberra            12   1323 3332
      Hobart              13   1224 3422
      Casey(Ant)          14   2333 3422
      Davis(Ant)          21   34-4 3434
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2222 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active 
14 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Magnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled 
levels at most time. Active condition is still possible because 
of the corona hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
12 Jul   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul   100    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul   100    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    48800 K  Bz:   2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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