[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/2B    1451UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
 M1/--    1419UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 136/90

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. 
The region 30 remains possible to produce isolated flare. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 2122
      Darwin               5   2112 2122
      Townsville           3   1111 2022
      Learmonth            4   2012 2021
      Canberra             3   1102 2022
      Hobart               2   1002 2012
      Casey(Ant)           7   2222 2133
      Davis(Ant)           8   2223 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUL : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            64   (Active)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3333 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Jul    14    Unsettled to Active 
14 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
11 Jul    96

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul   100    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Jul   110    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul   100    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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