[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 151/106


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 07 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   3444 4334
      Darwin              30   3553 --4-
      Townsville          16   3343 3334
      Learmonth           15   3343 3234
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart              22   4444 4233
      Casey(Ant)          24   ---5 432-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              76   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10        


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec    20    active 
09 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
10 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has been elevated at 550-600 km/s since 
around 10UT. Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
has trended north to neutral but with significant north/south 
fluctuations. Isolated active to minor storm periods have been 
observed particularly at high latitudes. These high-speed coronal 
hole wind stream effects are likely to persist today and tomorrow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressions of 10-30% have been observed in Southern 
Aus/NZ regions after local dawn today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Isolated depressions of 10-20%.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec   100    Depressed 10-30% Southern Aus/NZ regions after 
                local dawn. Isolated depressions Antarctic region. 
09 Dec   110    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
10 Dec   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 76 was issued on 7 December 
and is current for interval 8 December only. Ocasionally strong 
sporadic E conditions observed at mid to high latitudes, and 
likely to persist today. High speed coronal hole wind stream 
effects are expected to continue today and into tomorrow. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:    ??
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:   ??
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:  ??
       X-ray background:  ??
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:   14.0 p/cc  Temp:    53600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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