[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Dec             08 Dec             09 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2223 2334
      Darwin               8   2222 23--
      Townsville           7   1222 2-33
      Learmonth            9   2223 2324
      Canberra             -   ---- ----
      Hobart               7   1322 2223
      Casey(Ant)          17   3-44 2334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 DEC : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   3323 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Dec    20    active 
09 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Strong north/south fluctuations in interplanetary magnetic 
field were observed after 15UT, accompanied by a steady increse 
in solar wind speed from 380 to 420 km/s. Unsettled to active 
conditions are expected over the next few days due to coronal 
hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Periods of degraded HF conditions expected over the 
next few days due to coronal hole effects. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Dec   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Dec   120    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Dec   100    Near predicted monthly values. Periods of degraded 
                conditions, especially high latitudes. 
09 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Strong sporadic E layer observed at mid latitudes after 
local dawn today. Widespread and persistent spread F conditions 
at high latitudes. Isolated depressions possible later, especially 
at high latitudes, in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic 
disturbance. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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