[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 November 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 1 10:56:41 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z NOVEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: The solar activity was very low today. A B8 flare
was recorded from region 209(S20E62) at 1125UT/30 November.
One more flare has just been observed (around 2210UT/30November)
few minutes before this report was issued. This flare is just
on the border line between B and C-class and its exact
magnitude and source are not known at the time of issuing this
report. Region 207(S19E31) is the most dominant region on the
limb and there is some chance of isolated M-class flare from
this region. The solar wind speed is enhanced as expected due
to the effect of the coronal hole. The solar wind speed
remained between 500 km/s and 550 km/s for most of the UTday
30 November. The inter-planetary magnetic field stayed weakly
southwards for almost the whole day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 11 2333 2233
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 11 3322 2333
Canberra 11 2333 2233
Hobart 14 2343 3232
Casey(Ant) - ---- ----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 NOV :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 129 (Severe storm)
Hobart 165 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 3342 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 25 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm possible.
02 Dec 18 Mostly unsettled to active. Minor storm possible.
03 Dec 12 Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 29
November and is current for interval 30 November to
3 December. The high speed solar wind stream from the
coronal hole seems to be showing its effect. The solar
wind speed remained high (500 to 550 km/s) during the
UT day 30 November. The geo-magnetic activity remained
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on this day with
isolated active periods recorded. The geo-magnetic
activity is expected to rise further on 01 December
with mostly 'unsettled to active level' expected with
the possibility of minor geo-magnetic storm. However,
if Bz remains only weakly southward (as observed during
the last 24 hours), the geo-magnetic activity may not rise
upto the expected level of storm.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Fair Fair Poor-fair
02 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to show minor to
mild degradations during the next two days -especially at
mid- and high-latitude locations. These degradations are
expected due to a favourably placed coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods of
depressions.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 91
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 90 Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed
by 5-15%.
02 Dec 94 Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed
by 5%.
03 Dec 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on
29 November and is current for interval 30 November to
3 December. HF conditions in Australian/NZ regions are
expected to show minor to mild degradations during the
next two days- especially in the Southern Australian
regions. These degradations and possible MUF depressions
are expected due to a favourably placed conronal hole on
the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 194000 K
Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list