[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 December 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 2 10:52:20 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z DECEMBER 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 150/105


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Dec             03 Dec             04 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity was low today. A few C-class flares 
were observed, the largest being a C5.5 at 1528UT from region 
208 (N10E49). Region 207(S19E20) is the largest region on the 
disk. There is low possibility of isolated M-flare from region 
207 and 208. The solar wind speed is still enhanced due to 
the effect of the coronal hole. The solar wind speed remained 
between 480 km/s and 540 km/s for most of the UTday 30 
November. The inter-planetary magnetic field stayed weakly 
southwards for almost the whole day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Mostly unsettled to active. 

Estimated Indices 01 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      20   3444 4323
      Darwin              15   3--- ----
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth           21   -434 4423
      Canberra            18   3334 4333
      Hobart              19   3344 4323
      Casey(Ant)          --   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 DEC : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            52   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16   3443 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Dec    18    Mostly unsettled to active. 
03 Dec    15    Mostly unsettled. Isolated active periods possible. 
04 Dec    10    Mostly quiet to unsettled. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 29 
November and is current for interval 30 November to 
3 December. The solar wind speed remained between 480 
to 540 km/s today. The geo-magnetic activity remained 
mostly at unsettled to active levels. The geo-magnetic 
activity is expected to remain mostly from unsettled 
to active tomorrow and then gradually decrease to 
unsettled and quiet levels during the next two days 
after that. However, if Bz remains only weakly southward 
(as observed during the last 48 hours), the geo-magnetic 
activity may not rise upto the expected level. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
03 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
04 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to show minor to 
mild degradations during the next two days -especially at 
mid- and high-latitude locations. These degradations are 
expected due to the currently going on coronal hole effect. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Dec    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with
      short periods of depressions.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of depressions and degradations.


Predicted Monthly T index for December:  86

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Dec    94    Mostly near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                by 5%. 
03 Dec   105    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Dec   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 75 was issued on 
29 November and is current for interval 30 November to 
3 December. HF conditions in Australian/NZ regions are 
expected to show minor degradations during the next two 
days- especially in the Southern Australian regions. 
These degradations and possible MUF depressions are 
expected due to the currently going on coronal hole effect. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 517 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  
Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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