[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:**RED**   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0420UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.9    0549UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    0845UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.3    1200UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    1317UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.5    2024UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 225/175


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            210/161            210/161




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2223 1023
      Townsville           6   2222 1033
      Learmonth            5   2222 1023
      Canberra             4   2212 0023
      Hobart               3   2112 0022
      Casey(Ant)           9   33-3 1123
      Davis(Ant)          12   3--4 1134
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   4332 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug    25    Initially unsettled with active to minor storm 
                periods possible for the latter half of the UT 
                day. 
25 Aug    30    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
26 Aug    30    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 23 August and 
is current for interval 24-27 August. A partail halo CME observed 
in association with the M5-flare at 0156UT on 22 August is expected 
to have a glancing blow at the in the latter half of the UT day 
of 24 August. Active to minor storm periods are expected to follow. 
Further CME activity observed in association with the M1-flare 
at 0549UT on 23 August is expected to have a glancing impact 
on 26 August. Active to minor storm periods are again expected 
to follow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 0445UT 22/08, Ended at 0050UT 23/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
25 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
26 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mildly degraded at 
high latitudes and slightly degraded at mid-latitudes for 25-27 
August due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity over 
the next few days. SWF's possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Aug   151

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug   130    Enhanced 15% to near predicted monthly values. 
25 Aug    90    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug   100    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 22 August 
and is current for interval 22-24 August (SWFs) . HF conditions 
are expected to be mildly degraded at high latitudes and slightly 
degraded at mid-latitudes for 25-27 August due to anticipated 
increased geomagnetic activity over the next few days. SWF's 
possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    63200 K  Bz:   9 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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