[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:*YELLOW*    ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/2B    0157UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/1N    1802UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug: 220/170


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   215/165            215/165            210/161




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3342 1122
      Townsville          10   3342 1112
      Learmonth            9   3332 1122
      Canberra             7   3331 0112
      Hobart               6   2331 0012
      Casey(Ant)          13   3443 1121
      Davis(Ant)          11   2342 1132
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             41   5574 5343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
24 Aug    25    Initially quiet with active to minor storm 
                periods possible for the latter half of the UT 
                day. 
25 Aug    30    Unsettled to active with possible minor storm 
                periods. 
COMMENT: A partail halo CME observed in association with the 
M5-flare at 0156UT on 22 August is expected to have a glancing 
blow at the in the latter half of the UT day of 24 August. Active 
to minor storm periods are expected to follow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 08 2002 0445UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor   
25 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: HF conditions have been degraded at high latitudes for 
22 August due to a PCA event. HF conditions are expected to be 
mildly degraded for 24/25 August at high latitudes and slightly 
degraded at mid-latitudes for 25 August due to anticipated increased 
geomagnetic activity. SWF's possible. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Aug   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug   150    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Aug   130    Enhanced 15% to near predicted monthly values. 
25 Aug    90    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 41 was issued on 22 August 
and is current for interval 22-24 August (SWFs) . HF conditions 
have been degraded at high latitudes for 22 August due to a PCA 
event. HF conditions are expected to be mildly degraded for 24/25 
August at high latitudes and slightly degraded at mid-latitudes 
for 25 August due to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity. 
SWF's possible. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 412 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    24700 K  Bz:  -7 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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