[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 02

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    0212UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/1F    1815UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 208/159


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   210/161            215/165            215/165




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2222 3333
      Darwin              11   2222 3423
      Townsville           8   2122 3322
      Learmonth           13   2222 4433
      Canberra             9   1122 4323
      Hobart              12   1322 4334
      Casey(Ant)          12   2332 333-
      Davis(Ant)          21   -343 344-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   4433 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
16 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
17 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: A partial halo CME observed in association with the 
M2-flare on 14 August is expected to impact the Earth late in 
the UT day of 15 August to early on 16 August. Storm levels are 
expected to follow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : Began at 1245UT 14/08, Ended at 1350UT 14/08
 and, Began at 1545UT 14/08, Ended at 1825UT 14/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Aug   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Enhanced by 95% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug   115    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug    95    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10-20%. 
17 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 13 August 
and is current for interval 13-15 August (SWFs) . 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 464 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   134000 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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