[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 140/94


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Aug             11 Aug             12 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             150/105
COMMENT: Solar wind speed appears now to have steadied at 450km/sec. 
in association with coronal hole effects. Bz also again flucuated 
southward 10nT toward end of UT day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 09 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2232 3333
      Darwin              10   2222 3333
      Townsville          10   2222 3332
      Learmonth           11   2232 3333
      Canberra            12   2222 4333
      Hobart              11   2122 4333
      Casey(Ant)          11   2332 23--
      Davis(Ant)          17   0342 235-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10   2312 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
11 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible day 1 of forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair          
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT:Mild degradation at high latitudes day 1  of forecast
period, due to mild coronal hole effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Aug   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Aug   105    near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 316 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:    37500 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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