[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 9 09:15:51 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Aug             10 Aug             11 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: Solar wind speed showed mild increase toward end of 
UT day, probably a weak corona hole signature. Bz also flucuated 
sothward 10nT toward end of UT day. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 1112
      Darwin               4   1111 1223
      Townsville           3   1011 1123
      Learmonth            3   1110 1122
      Canberra             2   1100 2112
      Hobart               1   0100 2102
      Casey(Ant)           3   1221 0111
      Davis(Ant)           5   1321 11--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8   2322 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Aug    12    Unsettled 
10 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active 
11 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible day 2 of forecast period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Aug   110

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Aug   105    near predicted monthly values 
10 Aug   105    near predicted monthly values 
11 Aug   105    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days, with the chance of SWF's. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    39800 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 



More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list