[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 28 09:12:27 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 157/111

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at low level. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2322 2232
      Townsville           7   1212 2233
      Learmonth            9   2222 2332
      Canberra             5   1212 2222
      Hobart               5   1212 2222
      Casey(Ant)          13   3433 2222
      Davis(Ant)          13   2333 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6   2112 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr    12    Unsettled 
29 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled 
to active levels on 28 and 29 April due to recurrent coronal 
hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 0235UT 21/04, Ended at 0515UT 26/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
27 Apr   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
29 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
30 Apr   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    44400 K  Bz:   0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 




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