[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 28 09:12:27 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 157/111
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be at low level.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 2322 2232
Townsville 7 1212 2233
Learmonth 9 2222 2332
Canberra 5 1212 2222
Hobart 5 1212 2222
Casey(Ant) 13 3433 2222
Davis(Ant) 13 2333 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 APR :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 6 2112 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 12 Unsettled
29 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled
to active levels on 28 and 29 April due to recurrent coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : Began at 0235UT 21/04, Ended at 0515UT 26/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
27 Apr 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 150 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
29 Apr 150 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr 140 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 44400 K Bz: 0 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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