[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 163/117

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            170/124
COMMENT: The solar activity is expected to be low. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1121 0012
      Townsville           1   0110 0113
      Learmonth            2   110- ----
      Canberra             1   1010 0012
      Hobart               0   0010 0011
      Casey(Ant)           4   2231 0001
      Davis(Ant)           5   1232 1002
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2102 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Apr    12    Unsettled 
29 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled 
to active levels on 27 and 28 April due to recurrent coronal 
hole effects. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Began at 0235UT 21/04, Ended at 0515UT 26/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
26 Apr   129

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr   135    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
28 Apr   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
29 Apr   150    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 449 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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