[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 24 09:52:19 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 175/129
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Regions 9915(N11E28), 9916(S18E47) and 9914(N04E18)
are showing minor growth. Region 9912(N11W38) is showing a slow
decay in spots. After arrival of the shock, associated to the
CME observed on 21 April, the solar wind speed went upto nearly
680km/s. The solar wind speed remained nearly constant at 600km/s
for nearly 14 hours. It is showing a decline now.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0414UT on 23
Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 23 2553 3423
Townsville 23 1553 3423
Learmonth 26 1553 3523
Canberra 21 1553 3322
Hobart 21 1553 3322
Casey(Ant) 30 3654 3333
Davis(Ant) 34 3564 443-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 APR :
Darwin NA
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 3423 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 15 Unsettled to active
25 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled.
26 Apr 6 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 23 April and
is current for interval 23-24 April. A shock(0414UT/23April),
followed by a sudden impulse (64nT, 0449UT/23April), arrived
due to the CME obsrved on 21 April from region 9906.It raised
the geomagnetic activity to minor storm level. After the arrival
of this shock, Bz fluctuated between north and south for nearly
14 hours and it now seems to be settling northwards. The geomagnetic
activity is expected to decline from active to unsettled to quiet
level over the next 3 days (i.e. 24, 25 and 26 April). The solar
wind speed is also declining towards the more nominal levels.
A moderate (64nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter
data at 0449UT on 23 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 21 04 2002 0235UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Poor-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Shock arrived at 0414UT/23April due to the partial halo
CME observed on 21 April. It was followed by a moderate sudden
impulse at 0450/23 April. The geomagnetic activity rose to minor
storm level. Mild degradations were observed in the HF conditions
at low and mid-latitudes. The >100MeV proton event ended at 2335UT/22April
but the >10MeV proton event is still in progress. Polar circuits
may be expected to show degradations due to the proton event
on 24 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
23 Apr 121
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to enchanced upto
10%.
25 Apr 150 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr 155 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 23 April
and is current for interval 23-24 April. Due to the partial halo
CME, observed on 21 April, the geomagnetic activity rose upto
minor storm level on 23 April. The HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal in Australian region over the next
3 days as the geomagnetic activity is declinig.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.0E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 281 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 77500 K Bz: -2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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