[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 23 09:52:27 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Low

Region 9912 produced a C2 flare, associated with a Type II radio
sweep at 1210/22 April. The >100MeV proton event has ended but
the >10MeV proton event is expected to continue till 24 April.
Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 170/124

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2313 2222
      Townsville           7   2312 1222
      Learmonth            8   2312 1322
      Canberra             7   2312 1222
      Hobart               8   2322 2222
      Casey(Ant)          15   34-3 3323
      Davis(Ant)          18   -4-4 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3221 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr    25    Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated periods 
                of minor storm level possible. 
24 Apr    18    Unsettled to active 
25 Apr    12    Mostly unsettled. Quiet periods possible. 
COMMENT: A bright partial halo CME was observed from the western 
limb from region 9906 which was associated with an X1.5 flare 
at 0155UT on 21 April. The CME speed is estimated to nearly 2400km/s. 
It is not earth-directed but it has been a major event. It may 
be wide enough to cause geomagnetic activity on 23 and 24 April. 
The >100MeV proton event,associated with this CME and that started 
at 0155/22April, has ended.  

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 21 04 2002 0235UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair     
24 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor-fair     
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: The partial halo CME, observed on 21 April, may cause 
geomagnetic activity on 23 and 24 April. Due to the un-availability 
of ACE and LASCO data (probably because of high proton flux), 
it is not possible,at this stage, to conclusively say if the 
CME is going to be geo-effective or not. The HF conditions may 
have slight degradations on 23 and 24 April at low and mid-latitude 
locations if the CME proves to be geo-effetive. The >100MeV proton 
event has ended but the >10MeV proton event is still in progress. 
The HF conditions in the polar region are,therefore, expected 
to remain degraded untill 24 April. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
22 Apr   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr   125    near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr   135    near predicted monthly values 
25 Apr   140    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Due to the partial halo CME and the geomagnetic activity 
may rise on 23 and 24 April. It may cause mild depressions in 
MUFs in the Australian regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+08
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 282 km/sec  Density:    5.4 p/cc  Temp:    94900 K  Bz:  -1 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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