[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 02
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 21 09:46:40 EST 2002
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 177/131
http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Region 9906 is growing in size while it is crossing
the limb. The region is still flare capable. The solar wind speed
has decreased to nearly 500km/s from a maximum speed of approximately
700km/s as the effect of the CME, observed on 17April, is subsiding.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9885 is due for return
to the north-east limb around 22 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Unsettled to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 34 6544 3434
Townsville 27 5543 3344
Learmonth 37 5554 3545
Canberra 32 5554 3433
Hobart 35 5555 3434
Casey(Ant) 29 6533 3333
Davis(Ant) 47 7543 44-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 APR :
Darwin NA
Townsville 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 47 (Unsettled)
Canberra 134 (Severe storm)
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 40
Planetary 60
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 36
Planetary 44 4446 6555
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 14 Mostly unsettled. Quiet and active levels of
activity are possible for short intervals of
time.
22 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
23 Apr 6 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The effect of the CME, observed on 17 April, is subsiding
now. The solar wind speed has decreased to nearly 500km/s from
a maximum of approximately 700km/s. As Bz remained southwards
for more than half a day, the geomagnetic activity went above
the expected 'mostly active' level to minor storm level for some
time, and even upto major storm level for short time. The geomagnetic
activity has started to decline and is expected to further decline
in the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As the geomagnetic activity is subsiding now,the HF
conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in the next 3
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf
Date T index
20 Apr 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 130 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
22 Apr 140 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
23 Apr 145 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: As the geomagnetic activity has started to subside now,
the HF conditions are expected to remain normal in the next 3
days in most Australian regions. However, slight degradations
in MUFs are possible in the Southern Australian regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: 2 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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