[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 02

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 20 09:41:23 EST 2002


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/current
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 180/133

http://www.ips.gov.au/learmonth/solar     http://www.ips.gov.au/culgoora

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            170/124
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field remained southward for nearly 8 hours. A shock in the solar 
wind speed was observed around 0802UT/19 April.The solar wind 
speed increased from 450km/s(approx) to 550km/s(approx) on arrival 
of the shock and went upto nearly 700km/s. This shock is associated 
with the CME observed on 17 April. Several C-class flares were 
observed from region 9906, which still maintains its size and 
magnetic complexity. This region is still flare capable. 
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0802UT on 19 
Apr. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_geomag

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Active to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      39   4455 4554
      Townsville          33   4445 4454
      Learmonth           41   4346 5555
      Canberra            36   4445 4553
      Hobart              36   4445 4553
      Casey(Ant)          29   4355 4433
      Davis(Ant)          42   4466 4444
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 APR : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        30
           Planetary             40                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             54   6765 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr    25    Mostly active 
21 Apr    12    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 19 April and 
is current for interval 19-20 April. A shock in the solar wind 
speed was observed at 0802UT/19 April. This shock, associated 
with the CME observed on 17 April, increased the solar wind speed 
from 450km/s(approx) to 550km/s(approx) on arrival. The solar 
wind speed reached upto nearly 700km/s soon after the arrival 
of the shock. The geomagnetic activity went upto minor storm 
level on 19 April as per the expectations. The geomagnetic activity 
is expected to decline to active level on 20 April as the CME 
passes the earth. 
A weak (23nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data 
at 0836UT on 19 Apr. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 1530UT 17/04, Ended at 0050UT 18/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to active 
level for most of the day on 20 Aril. The HF conditions are mostly 
expected to remain un-affected by the geo-magnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc/aus_hf

Date   T index
19 Apr   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      'Normal' to 'degraded upto 40%' over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr   140    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
21 Apr   150    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
22 Apr   160    15 to 30% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 19 April 
and is current for interval 19-20 April. The geomagnetic activity 
is expected to decline to active level for most of the day on 
20 April. The geomagnetic activity is not expected to have any 
significant effect on the HF conditions across Australia. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 496 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:    22000 K  Bz:  -6 nT
http://sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 




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