[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/2N    0830UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
 M2/1N    1014UT  possible   lower  European
 M1/1F    1926UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 266/217

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   260/210            260/210            255/205

COMMENT: The M3 and M2 event were associated with coronal mass 
ejections. Several solar regions now M class flare capable, with 
chance of X class flaring. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2232 2322
      Darwin               8   2232 2222
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            8   3231 2221
      Canberra             9   2232 2323
      Hobart               9   2232 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 SEP : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   1113 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep    20    Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions. 
30 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
01 Oct    20    Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 28 September 
and is current for interval 29-30 September. Isolated active 
periods possible on 29 Sep based on recurrence. There is a chance 
for increased activity on 29 Sep and now on 01 Oct due to recent 
mass ejection activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 09 2001 1235UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
30 Sep      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
01 Oct      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions gradually improving today. 
There is a chance for degraded conditions on 29 Sep and 01 Oct. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Sep   168

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 60% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep   150    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
30 Sep   110    Near predicted monthly values 
01 Oct   135    15-20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Higher than normal MUFs expected. SWFs probable. Chance 
for degraded conditions on 29 Sep and 01 Oct local night hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 483 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:   105000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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