[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 30 09:17:57 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1F 28/2125UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 240/189
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Sep 01 Oct 02 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 240/189 240/189 235/185
COMMENT:ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement
event beginning 29/0835UT, which can be a precursor to
increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0905UT on 29 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Unsettled to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A K
Australian Region 22 2334 3545
Darwin 20 3334 3445
Townsville - ---- ----
Learmonth 20 2234 3455
Canberra 22 2334 3545
Hobart 22 2334 3545
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 SEP :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 2233 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Sep 20 Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions.
01 Oct 20 Unsettled to active, chance of minor storm conditions.
02 Oct 15 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 28 September
and is current for interval 29-30 September. Increased activity
expected due to combination of coronal hole and recent mass ejections.
A weak (25nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 0939UT on 29 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 24 09 2001 1235UT and
is in progress (declining)
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
02 Oct Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Degarded conditions expected mid to high latitudes next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Sep 160
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Sep 110 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
01 Oct 100 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
02 Oct 100 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 28 September
and is current for interval 29 September to 1 October (SWFs)
few days. Depression may not be deep due to current enhanced
MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 144000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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