[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    0451UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.5    1000UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.4    1651UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 227/177

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Oct             30 Oct             31 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   230/180            230/180            225/175


A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0241UT on 28 
Oct. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Unsettled to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      34   3545 6433
      Darwin              26   3534 5333
      Learmonth           34   2545 6333
      Canberra            29   3544 5433
      Hobart              50   4555 7433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 OCT : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        35
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1212 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
30 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
31 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The CME associated with the X1-flare observed on 25 
October impacted the Earth at 0241UT.
A moderate (61nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 0319UT on 28 Oct. Minor to major storm levels followed. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
30 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair          
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair          
COMMENT: Degraded conditions were observed at mid-high latitudes 
following the impact of a CME early on 28 October. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Oct   156

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Normal to depressed 30%. 


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Oct   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Oct   130    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Oct   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded conditions were observed at mid-high latitudes 
following the impact of a CME early on 28 October. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 389 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    30400 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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