[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 October 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z OCTOBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:**RED**   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 247/197

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   250/200            245/195            245/195




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2311 2112
      Darwin               4   2211 2013
      Learmonth            3   2201 2002
      Canberra             6   2301 3112
      Hobart               5   2311 2102
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 OCT : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1022 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct    50    Storm levels 
29 Oct    16    Unsettled to active 
30 Oct    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 27 October 
and is current for interval 27-28 October. The CME associated 
with the X1-flare observed on 25 October is expected to impact 
the Earth early in the UT day of 28 October. Storm levels are 
expected to follow. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Fair-poor     
29 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Degraded conditions are expected for 28 October following 
the impact of an anticipated CME due early on 28 October. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Oct   179

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly normal to enhanced at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 106

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct    90    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Oct   120    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Oct   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 27 October 
and is current for interval 27-28 October. Degraded conditions 
are expected for 28 October following the impact of an anticipated 
CME due early on 28 October. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:    58100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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