[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1F 14/2211UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 207/158

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Nov             17 Nov             18 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            205/156            195/147
COMMENT: A very weak shock was observed at around 1355UT, with 
solar wind speed jumping from 284km/sec to 307 km/sec. The origin 
of this weak discontinuity is unclear. 
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 9678 is due for return 
to the north-east limb around 16 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 15 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   1112 2442
      Darwin              10   1111 2443
      Learmonth            3   20-- ----
      Canberra            10   0112 2442
      Hobart               7   0112 24-2
      Casey(Ant)           9   2321 142-
      Davis(Ant)          11   1223 2342
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0010 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Nov    13    Unsettled to Active 
17 Nov    12    Unsettled 
18 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter 
data at 1509UT on 15 Nov. Active periods observed post impulse.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-Normal 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Fair-Normal
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation observe dat high latitudes late in 
UT day in association with mild geomagnetic activity following 
weak impulse. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Nov   163

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
18 Nov   170    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    23200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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