[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.1    2213UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 217/167

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Nov             16 Nov             17 Nov
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            215/165
COMMENT: A region on the far south-east limb (9704) may be the 
return of previously flaring region 9672. 9672 produced an isolated 
X class event on previous disk transit. Large region 9690 appears 
remain quiet but also remains flare capable. Previously M-flare(s) 
producing region 9678 is due for return to the north-east limb 
around 16 Nov. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2221 1111
      Darwin               4   2211 1112
      Learmonth            3   2120 1102
      Canberra             3   2120 1111
      Hobart               4   2221 1111
      Casey(Ant)           6   3-22 10--
      Davis(Ant)           6   23-2 1021
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 NOV : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Nov    13    Unsettled to Active 
17 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Very mild recurrent activity possible on 16-17 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Nov   178

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 10-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 10-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Nov   175    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
16 Nov   175    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
17 Nov   175    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 365 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    71600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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