[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 7 10:23:49 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 0300UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.3 0625UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1352UT possible lower European
M1.1 1543UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 237/187
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 235/185 230/180
COMMENT:Several regions capable of significant flare activity.
Proton event remains in progress, but declining. ACE detector
remain saturated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 83 7765 5655
Darwin 51 6654 4554
Learmonth 67 7665 4555
Canberra 77 7764 4655
Hobart 100 7874 4655
Casey(Ant) 85 77-6 6544
Davis(Ant) 81 76-6 6644
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 NOV :
Darwin 83 (Minor storm)
Townsville 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 105 (Major storm)
Canberra 160 (Severe storm)
Hobart 150 (Severe storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 75
Planetary 100
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13 0012 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 30 Minor storm to active, declining toward end of UT day.
08 Nov 15 Unsettled to active
09 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 6 November
and is current for interval 6-7 November. Severe storm levels
followed impulse. Activity declined toward end of UT day. A general
further declining trend in activity is expected, with isolated
storm periods possible around local midnight tonight.
A moderate (84nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter
data at 0151UT on 06 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Fair Poor-fair Very Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2001 1710UT and
is in progress(declining).
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Fair Fair Poor-Fair(PCA)
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions strongly degraded due to severe geomagnetic
storm. High latitude HF conditions useless due to PCA and severe
geomagnetic storm conditions. Proton flux declining and high
latitude HF conditions are expected to improve toward end of
UT day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Northern Aus. Region:
Depressed 30-40% 02-06UT.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Recovering after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 30-40% 02-06UT.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov 120 Enhanced 15% northern Aus region.
Depressed 15-30% southern region.
08 Nov 140 Near predicted to 15% above monthly values
09 Nov 165 15 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on 5 November
and is current for interval 6-8 November (SWFs) . Highly variable
MUFs and layer heights observed over past 24 hours in the Aus/NZ
region. Most sites 30-40% depressed 02-06UT. Some sites then
returned to near normal. Other sites depressed 40-50%, particularly
southern region. Variable conditions expected again today with
southern region Aus/NZ MUFs expected to be around 20% depressed
today, and Northern region MUFs are expected to be mostly near
to 15% above normal today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.3E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+04 (normal)
X-ray background: C3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 43.0 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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