[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 November 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 6 10:33:11 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z NOVEMBER 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 0251UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0857UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.3 0915UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1539UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 235/185
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 235/185 235/185
COMMENT: Possible weak shocks were observed on the SOHO MTOF
proton instrument. Interpretation was difficult. Solar wind speed
has stepped up from 300 to 450km/sec over the UT day. Intense
proton event in progress, event appeared to be declining, then
reintensified after 18 UT. ACE solar wind detector saturated.
Further M and X class events expected, new region on south-east
limb. LASCO has reported a faster shock speed (1600km/sec vs
1300km/sec) for the recent X1 event. This faster shock speed
would give a shock arrival window 05-12UT on 06 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 22 2124 3554
Darwin 19 2124 3544
Learmonth 22 2124 3554
Canberra 18 1124 3454
Hobart 12 1123 2444
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 NOV :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 0023 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 65 Storm levels
07 Nov 55 Storm levels
08 Nov 18 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 4 November
and is current for interval 6-7 November.
A weak (14nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1555UT on 05 Nov, and a weak (12nT) impulse was observed at
1753UT on 05 Nov. Possible weak impulse(s) observed due to
earlier weaker slower mass ejection. A much stronger impulse
is expected on 06 Nov due the X1 event. Storm activity
is expected 06 Nov an may continue into 07 Nov depending on
arrival time of mass ejection.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 04 11 2001 1710UT and
is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal-Poor Fair-Poor Very Poor(PCA)
07 Nov Poor-Fair Poor-Fair Very Poor-Poor
08 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Poor-Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions degraded due to PCA (which
intensified after 18UT) and mild ge0mangetic activity. High latitudes
are expected to remain poor as geomagnetic storm activity is
expected to intensify early-mid 06 Nov, also impacting low-mid
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov 161
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Absorption due to PCA.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 109
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov 100 Initially midly depressed (southern region) to
15% enhanced (northern region), strong depression
expected second half of UT day.
07 Nov 80 30 to 50% below predicted monthly values
08 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 5 November
and is current for interval 6 November only. Strongly depressed
and degraded HF conditions are now expected from mid 06 Nov for
all sites due to overnight X1 flare/CME. A milder degradation
for southern region Aus has been observed after local dawn this
morning.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 63600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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