[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 138/92

GOES satellite data for 13 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 May             16 May             17 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            155/109

COMMENT: Isolated M class flares possible. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3232 0113
      Darwin               6   3231 0113
      Townsville           7   3231 0123
      Learmonth            9   4222 1223
      Canberra             7   3232 0213
      Hobart               7   3232 0112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 MAY : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              62   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             23   5423 3444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 May    15    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active periods. 
16 May    10    Quiet to unsettled.
17 May     8    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 May   101

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
16 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
17 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT:Brief depressions of 15% expected after local dawn
on 15 May, southern Aus/NZ region.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060