[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: **YEELOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M3/1B 12/2335UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
 M3/SN    0304UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 139/93

GOES satellite data for 12 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 May             15 May             16 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            160/114
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained elevated at around 500-600km/sec. 
The two M3 flare events were from now centrally located region 
9455, which provided most of the days activity. Events appeared 
to be associated with predominately southward directed mass ejections,
reducing geoeffectiveness. Data on the last mass ejection stopped around 
5UT, so this view may change as more coronograph images become 
available. If any minor effects were to come from these mass 
ejections, event data suggests arrival around 07-18UT on 15 May. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 13 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   3333 3444
      Darwin              15   3332 3343
      Townsville          17   3323 3444
      Learmonth           18   3333 3445
      Canberra            17   3332 3443
      Hobart              18   3333 3443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 MAY : 
      Darwin              61   (Active)
      Townsville          30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           15   (Quiet)
      Canberra           156   (Severe storm)
      Hobart              NA
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             34   4246 6434     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 May    13    Unsettled to Active 
15 May    16    Unsettled to Active 
16 May     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Active preiods expected next two days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
15 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at mid to high 
latitudes next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 May    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 May   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
15 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
16 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degradation observed local night hours, southern Aus/NZ 
region. Mildly depressed MUFs may be experienced briefly after 
local dawn this morning, southern region. 

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