[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 130/84

GOES satellite data for 09 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 May             12 May             13 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: A mass ejection was observed around 01UT with an associated 
C5 xray flare. However, event did not coincide with any on disk 
activity, suggesting a beyond the limb event. Another mass ejection 
was observed around 15UT, this time correlated with a C6 flare 
from region 9454 in the far north-east quadrant of the solar 
disk. Due to this regions far eastward location, mass ejection 
is considered not geoeffective. Region 9454 may produce M class 
activity in coming days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      14   3343 2233
      Darwin              15   3333 ----
      Townsville          12   3343 2123
      Learmonth           17   4343 233-
      Canberra            14   3343 2233
      Hobart              15   2344 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 MAY : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             32   5544 4444     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
13 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Weak 27 day recurrent pattern suggests that mild activity 
can be expected on 12 May. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mid to High latitude HF communication degraded local 
night hours. Mild degradation possible 12 May. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 May   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed local night.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 May   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
12 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
13 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation observed local night hours 10 May, 
southern Aus/NZ region. Mildly depressed MUFs possible afte local 
dawn this morning. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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