[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 129/82

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             115/66
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 09 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      26   3333 5542
      Darwin              26   3333 5541
      Townsville          25   3323 5543
      Learmonth           30   4333 555-
      Canberra            26   3333 5542
      Hobart              26   3333 5543
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 MAY : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        28
           Planetary             35                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             14   2133 3444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May    13    Unsettled 
11 May     8    Quiet to unsettled 
12 May    14    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 7 May and is 
current for interval 9-10 May. Increased geomagnetic activity 
observed second half of UT day 09 May. Origin unclear, possibly 
CME related, but no clear signature. Weak 27 day recurrent pattern 
suggests that mild activity can be expected on 12 May. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : Began at 1945UT 07/05, Ended at 1730UT 08/05
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Fair          
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal        
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: High latitude HF communication degraded second half 
of UT day. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 May   134

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F local night hours.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
11 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
12 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 8 May 
and is current for interval 9-10 May. Mild degradation observed 
local night hours 09 May, southern Aus/NZ region. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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