[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0539UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 257/207

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C3.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   255/205            250/200            245/195
COMMENT: A very small shock was observed around 2151UT. Jump 
is solar wind speed was around 25km/sec. Bz fluctuated southward 
around the same time. This small event was most likely from activity 
on 28 Mar. A more significant shock remains expected. ACE Solar wind 
energetic ion data reinforces this expectation with an enhancement 
precursor signature beginning 1715UT on 30 Mar. Further flares 
and fadeouts likely from the large solar region, which will rotate 
off disk around 4 Apr. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   2322 2234
      Darwin               10   3322 2235
      Townsville            8   2222 2234
      Learmonth            10   3322 2234
      Canberra              8   2322 2134
      Hobart                7   2321 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 MAR : 
      Darwin               34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             95   (Minor storm)
      Hobart               82   (Minor storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             22   4453 3423     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar    60    Storm levels 
01 Apr    18    active 
02 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 30 March and 
is current for interval 30 March to 1 April. Geomagnetic storm 
activity is expected 31 Mar to 01 Apr due to recent mass ejections. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 29 03 2001 1715UT and 
	    is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal-Fair    Normal-Poor    Fair-Poor(PCA)
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected next few days. 
High latitude HF comms expected to be significantly degraded
later today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Mar   184

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
      Spread F and occasional absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar   150    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 30% 
01 Apr    60    depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Apr   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 28 March 
and is current for interval 30 March to 1 April. MUfs are currently 
enhanced and are expected to remain initially enhanced today. 
However, degraded/depressed conditions remain expected later 
today in association with anticipated geomagnetic activity 31 
Mar. 

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