[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.2 28/2331UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.1    0257UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X1.7    1016UT  probable   all    European
  M1.7    1419UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
  M1.4    1435UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
  M1.5    1459UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
  M1.2    1527UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
  M1.2    2102UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 262/212

GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Mar             31 Mar             01 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   260/210            255/205            250/200

COMMENT: The large solar region now in the north-west quadrant 
of the solar disk produced the X1 event. Event was associated 
with full halo coronal mass ejetcion. A proton event began at 
1715UT and is in progress. A shock from this flare is expected 
on 31 Mar. There is now a sequence of 3 shocks expected to impact 
the Earth during the interval 30/1400UT to 31/2300UT. Further 
flares and fadeouts likely from this region, which will rotate 
off disk around 4 Apr. This region appears to be still growing.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       12   2332 3333
      Darwin               17   2433 3433
      Townsville           12   2332 3334
      Learmonth            16   3333 3433
      Canberra             11   2332 3323
      Hobart               13   2432 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 MAR : 
      Darwin                8   (Quiet)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               31   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             31   2246 6434     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Mar    25    quiet to unsettled, then active to minor storm 
                second half of UT day. 
31 Mar    60    Storm levels 
01 Apr    18    Initailly at active-minor storm levels, then 
                declining to unsettled. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 28 March and 
is current for interval 29-31 March. Geomagnetic storm activity 
is expected 30 Mar to 01 Apr due to recent mass ejections. There 
is a chance for isolated severe storm periods during local night 
hours 31 Mar, due to CME from recent X1 event. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 29 03 2001 1715UT and 
	    is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
31 Mar      Poor           Poor           Poor
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
29 Mar   175
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-45% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35% during local day,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Mar   120    Enhanced 15%, then depressed 15% later in UT day. 
31 Mar    80    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
01 Apr    60    depressed 20 to 40%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 28 March 
and is current for interval 30 March to 1 April. Enhanced MUFs 
observed yesterday. Depressed MUFs and degraded HF conditions 
expected beginning late 30 Mar. Mid latitude MUFs are expected 
to become significantly degraded/depressed in association with 
anticipated geomagnetic activity 30-31 Mar. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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