[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 168/122

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            155/109

COMMENT: ACE EPAM data did not continue its increasing trend, 
which implies that the weak halo CME on 24 June was not a front 
disk event. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   1122 3333
      Darwin               9   1122 3333
      Townsville           6   0021 3232
      Learmonth           14   22-3 433-
      Canberra             7   0111 3333
      Hobart               8   0221 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 JUN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   2222 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun    10    Unsettled 
28 Jun    12    Unsettled to active 
29 Jun    12    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 25 June and 
is current for interval 27-29 June. A weak shock was not observed 
over past 24 hours and is now not expected. Mild coronal hole 
effects (isolated active periods) are expected 28-29 June, as 
hole appears to mostly closed on this roatation. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible mild degradation at high latitudes, local night 
hours, next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Jun   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F and absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
28 Jun   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Jun   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible local night hours next few 
days southern Aus/NZ region. 

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