[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 26 JUNE - 28 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jun: 182/135

GOES satellite data for 24 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Jun             27 Jun             28 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   175/129            170/124            165/119

COMMENT: Reviewing LASCO difference imagery, it appears that 
there was a weak halo mass ejection in C3 imagery around 08UT 
on 24 June. Two candidate C3 flares occcured around 0635UT and 
0722UT on 24 June. If the mass ejection was a front disk event 
and associated with either of these flare events then a weak 
shock arrival is probable from 22UT on 26 June to 10UT on 27 
June. Also, ACE EPAM precursor data shows an increasing trend. 
A large isolated coronal hole which was visible on Yohkoh soft 
xray images on 29 May, appears to have mostly closed on images 
on 25 June. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2112 1111
      Darwin               4   2211 1111
      Townsville           3   1111 1110
      Learmonth           11   3233 3222
      Canberra             4   2112 1111
      Hobart               3   1112 1100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 JUN : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3223 3333     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Jun     7    Quiet 
27 Jun    16    Active
28 Jun    12    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A weak shock expected during interval 26/22UT - 27/10UT. 
Coronal hole effects that are due during interval 28-29 June, 
are expected to be much reduced on this rotation based on the 
apparent closure of the hole in Yohkoh imagery. Mild effects 
may still be experienced during local night hours. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible mild degradation at high latitudes, local night 
hours, 27 June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Jun   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Jun   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Jun   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
28 Jun   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible local night hours 27 June, 
southern Aus/NZ region. 

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