[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M6/1N    1013UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 197/149

GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jun             17 Jun             18 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            195/147

COMMENT: Flares and shortwave fadeouts expected due to active 
solar region. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
15/0805UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2222 0012
      Darwin               5   2322 0013
      Townsville           2   1210 0010
      Learmonth            8   3222 -223
      Canberra             5   2322 0001
      Hobart               3   1222 1001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUN : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2112 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
17 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild activity, with isolated active periods may be experienced 
during the forecast period. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 15 06 2001 1835UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours High latitude communications are 
currently degraded by increased absorption associated with a 
proton (PCA) event 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Jun   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun   130    near predicted monthly values 
18 Jun   130    near predicted monthly values 


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