[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M7/1N    1142UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 181/134

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2222 1212
      Darwin               6   2322 1112
      Townsville           3   2121 0112
      Learmonth            8   3222 2223
      Canberra             7   2322 1212
      Hobart               6   1232 1211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2222 2232     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 
16 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Jun   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun   125    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun   125    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun   120    Near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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