[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 142/96

GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jul             17 Jul             18 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Regiuon 9539 produced 4 C class flare but no further 
M class events following yesterdays M1. Isolated low level M 
class remains possible from this region. Solar wind speed fluctuated 
over past 24 hours, and remains moderately elevated at around 
440km/sec. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1111 2322
      Darwin               5   2211 2222
      Townsville           4   1111 2222
      Learmonth           13   2222 4433
      Canberra             5   0011 2322
      Hobart               5   0111 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUL : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   4422 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
17 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild activity possible on 16 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
17 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildly degarded conditions expected local night hours 
mid to high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Jul   106

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060