[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    2134UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 141/95

GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             145/99

COMMENT: A solar region in the south west quadrant of the solar 
disk (SEC 9539) produced the M1 event. This region showed grwoth 
overnight and increasing magnetic complexity. Solar wind speed 
fluctuated over past 24 hours, and remains moderately elevated 
at around 440km/sec. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3322 2211
      Darwin               9   4312 2212
      Townsville           3   2201 1100
      Learmonth           16   4333 3332
      Canberra             8   3322 2202
      Hobart               9   3322 2301
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUL : 
      Darwin              16   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2212 2333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jul    12    Unsettled 
16 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
17 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild activity possible on 16 July. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
16 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
17 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mildly degarded conditions expected local night hours 
mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Jul   120

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly 
      values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Some spread F.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      15% depressed to near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F local night.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours 
next two days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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