[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 169/123

GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Jan             17 Jan             18 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            180/133


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1112 2222
      Darwin                4   1112 2112
      Townsville            5   1112 2222
      Learmonth             5   2112 2223
      Canberra              7   1123 2222
      Hobart                7   1223 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1222 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Jan     6    Quiet 
17 Jan     6    Quiet 
18 Jan     6    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Jan   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Jan   135    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jan   130    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jan   130    Near predicted monthly values 


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