[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JANUARY - 17 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jan: 176/130

GOES satellite data for 13 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jan             16 Jan             17 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   185/138            190/143            190/143


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2222 1122
      Darwin                5   2222 1122
      Townsville            5   1222 1122
      Learmonth             5   2222 1123
      Canberra              5   2222 1022
      Hobart                6   1322 1022
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               28   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1012 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jan     6    Quiet 
16 Jan     6    Quiet 
17 Jan     6    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Jan   140

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Jan   146    Near predicted monthly values 


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