[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 145/99

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             145/99             150/105

COMMENT: A type II radio sweep was observed at 2037UT on the 
Culgoora Spectrograph. The sweep was in association with a C4.2/SF 
flare at N12W60. A small shock was observed in the solar wind 
around 2047UT. It is unclear if this shock is from a CME which 
occured near the south east limb on 10 Feb, or is the earlier 
than expected arrival of a shock originally expected on 13/14 
Feb from a CME on 11 Feb. North-South IMF (Bz) southward post shock. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        7   3211 2223
      Darwin                6   3211 1223
      Townsville            7   3111 2323
      Learmonth             8   3212 2322
      Canberra              4   2201 2213
      Hobart                6   3211 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               17   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2233 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb     7    Quiet 
14 Feb    17    active 
15 Feb    17    active 
COMMENT: Weak impulse expected late on 13 Feb to early 14 Feb 
from a weak CME observed on 11 Feb. Another small impulse expected 
late on 15 Feb due to todays type II radio sweep. Active periods 
may follow expected weak impulses. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event, proton flux returned to nominal levels,
            after recent mild enhancement on Feb 11.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
14 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
15 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair          
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions at high latitudes 
next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
12 Feb   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb   140    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
15 Feb   140    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected local night hours 
14-15 Feb, southern region Aus/NZ. There is a chance for mild 
depressions after local dawn after 14-15 Feb. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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