[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 151/106

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.8E+03
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            155/109
COMMENT: A mass ejection was observed in association with a slow 
decline C6.5 xray event at around 0100UT, in the north west quadrant 
of the solar disk. A minor type II radio seep was also observed in 
association with this event. A weak glancing blow from the mass ejection 
is possible on 13/14 Feb from this event. Also, mildy enhanced 
proton flux levels were observed following this flare/CME. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2222 1013
      Darwin                4   2222 1012
      Townsville            4   2122 1013
      Learmonth             8   3322 1222
      Canberra              4   2222 1003
      Hobart                5   2222 200-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra              4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               12   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1212 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     6    Quiet 
13 Feb     7    Quiet 
14 Feb    17    active 
COMMENT: Weak impulse expected late on 13 Feb to early 14 Feb 
from a weak CME observed on 11 Feb. Active periods may follow 
expeted impulse. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Mild proton enhancement in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly enhanced proton flux levels may increqase absorption 
in polar regions. Chance for mild degradation in HF conditions 
on 14 Feb following CME. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Feb   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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