[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 01

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 9 10:11:52 EST 2001


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 157/111

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2222 0223
      Darwin                5   2221 0223
      Townsville            5   2221 0223
      Learmonth             6   2222 1223
      Canberra              5   1222 0222
      Hobart                5   1222 022-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2311 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
11 Feb     7    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Feb   130

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Feb   140    Near predicted monthly values 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 




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